Avalanche Forecasting 101 by Scott Thumlert

Uncertainty. I believe the concept of uncertainty is somewhat misunderstood in both the recreational and professional avalanche communities. The interaction of weather over complex mountain terrain results in a snowpack that varies, a lot. So as we travel over the snow it is difficult to predict weak layer strengths, slab thickness, and slab stiffness. The solution? Perhaps digging a quick profile and perform a few snowpack tests. While this is a great idea and it provides some information, extrapolating this information from one point in the mountains and applying it to the surrounding…Read more